Wilson Research Strategies (R) (3/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):
Robin Carnahan (D): 47
Roy Blunt (R): 44Robin Carnahan (D): 47
Sarah Steelman (R): 39
(MoE: 4%)
Even a Republican internal poll can’t spin away the advantage that Missouri Secretary of State (and daughter of the former governor) Robin Carnahan seems to have in the race to fill Kit Bond’s open seat. Carnahan leads Rep. Roy Blunt by 3, and less-known ex-treasurer Sarah Steelman by 8. (The poll indicates 97% name ID for Blunt and 75% for Steelman.)
The poll has an interesting backstory; it was taken as a feasibility study for the Steelman campaign, but paid for by an unidentified third party unaffiliated with Steelman. While I would assume the poll therefore also polled a Blunt/Steelman primary, those numbers aren’t released (I would assume they showed Blunt winning by a wide margin).
What the poll does release is interesting, though: Blunt’s negatives among “soft” Democrats are high (25 favorable/50 unfavorable), while they tolerate Steelman (39/13). And when voters are read a paragraph describing Blunt’s support for earmarks and his relationship with Jack Abramoff, the “informed voter” ballot in the general turns into Carnahan 55, Blunt 30. Clearly the Steelman camp is testing what messages will be effective in the primary, but she may wind up doing a great job of softening Blunt up for the general (much as she did to Kenny Hulshof in last year’s gubernatorial race).
But he is going to be overmatched in the general. Robin Carnahan running puts this one at lean D at least. Man, how odd it feels for us to be favored from the start in a Missouri senate race…
The Blunt name in Missouri is like the Bush name nationally. According to SurveyUSA polls in 2006, just 2 years into his term, Matt Blunt was the least popular governor in the country except for Ernie Fletcher, Bob Taft, Frank Murkowski, and Mitt Romney. But it was Blunt’s actual governance–not criminal or ethical problems or political posturing–that made him so unpopular. Lots of low-information voters are likely to confuse Roy with Matt, and even if they don’t, they’re probably going to assume Matt’s extremist policies are inherited. Anyone who follows Roy’s House record already know this. Blunt probably wouldn’t even have been elected if McCaskill hadn’t been weakened after a bloody Democratic primary in which she took out the sitting governor, who was very unpopular.
Conversely, the Carnahan name is gold in Missouri. Robin’s father Mel was a popular two-term governor who won his Senate election weeks after his death (granted, he was running against John Ashcroft). Her brother Russ is a 3-term representative who just won re-election with 66% of the vote. Her mother Jean failed to hold on to her Senate seat in 2002, but she was also appointed to that seat, and she only lost by 1% during the fear and paranoia election following 9/11. Robin herself was just re-elected with more votes than anyone has ever received in Missouri.
Electoral results in Missouri, however, show that it’s still the model swing state. In the last midterm Missouri Senate election, McCaskill defeated the incumbent Talent by 2.2% (over 48,000 votes). Although, in an open seat race, the margin is likely to be much wider.
Jay Nixon just won by 19%, and he dominated the polling since before Blunt even announced his retirement. All of the state office-holders except the LtGov are Democrats, and with a better candidate and more coordination with Nixon, we probably would have that one too.
On the other hand, Kit Bond is still hugely popular today, even among Democrats, and Republicans control 5 of 9 House seats (and Skelton’s seat likely will be very competitive when he retires). The state legislature is dominated by Republicans (in both number and procedure). Plus, despite it being the closest margin in the country, McCain managed to win Missouri while still losing some traditionally red states that were not very close in the last few elections.
Missouri is not like the Dakotas or Oklahoma, in which one party dominates at the state level and another at the national level. In Missouri, it seems to be all about the individual candidate. It’s hard to see voters preferring Blunt and his baggage over Carnahan.